2024 Survey Results of the “American Portrait”－Press Release

 Initiated in 2021 by Dr. Chien-Huei Wu (the-then convenor of the U.S.-Taiwan-China Relations Thematic Research Group in the Institute of European and American Studies, IEAS, Academia Sinica) in collaboration with Dr. James Lee (IEAS, Academia Sinica), Dr. Wen-Chin Wu (IPSAS, Academia Sinica) and Dr. Hsin-Hsin Pan (Department of Sociology, Soochow University), "American Portrait Project" is a Taiwan-based survey that investigates the public's perception of the development of US-Taiwan-China relations, focusing on issues such as credibility, assurances, and the nature of the status quo.

The fourth wave of the survey was administered by the Election Study Center at National Chencghi University from May 23 to 28, 2024, via mobile and landline telephone interviews with 1,236 Taiwanese adults, with sampling error margins of ±2.79 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

For more details on the survey results, please refer to the report: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ADGHulvSLL5MXN5cK-dZtczeH-yiXzIg/view.

Summary of The Main Findings

Evaluation of US-Taiwan-China Relations

• Mixed views on the credibility of the US: 41.2% of respondents (a higher figure than the 33.9% in 2023) agreed that the US was a credible country while 50.0% (a lower figure than the 55.3% in 2023) disagreed.
  
• Very little belief in the credibility of China: Only 12.5% of respondents (a higher figure than the 9.3% in 2023) agreed that China was a trustworthy country, while 80.9% (a lower figure than the 84.0% in 2023) disagreed. 

Effectiveness of US Security Commitment

• US Support vs. China Threat: 58.2% believed that US support for Taiwan's security had increased in recent years, and 83.4% believed that the threat from China had increased in recent years.
  
• Respondents believe in presidential assurances: 62.9% of people said that a president's public commitment to defend Taiwan would increase their belief in the likelihood of the US using force to help Taiwan.
• Declaration of helping Taiwan to participate in the international community sends a strong signal to Taiwan: 63.2% of respondents said that if the US declares that it will help Taiwan participate in the international community and expand international space, it will increase their belief in the likelihood of the US using force to help Taiwan.
• US arms sales to Taiwan signal the U.S. commitment: 60.3% of respondents agreed that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan increase their belief in the likelihood of the US using force to help Taiwan.
• Respondents believed that US military actions signal the U.S. commitment: 71.8% believed that if US military aircraft and warships patrol Taiwan routinely, it will increase the likelihood of the US using force to help Taiwan.
• Comparing U.S. signals. Listed from highest to lowest, the following percentages indicate the proportion of respondents who believe that the following U.S. actions make it more likely that the U.S. will defend Taiwan: US military aircraft and warships patrol Taiwan routinely (71.8%), the declaration to help Taiwan to participate in the international community (63.2%), US. president's public commitment to defend Taiwan (62.9%), US. arms sales to Taiwan (60.3%)
• Mixed views on the connection between Trump's victory in the presidential election and Taiwan's security: 37.5% stated that Donald Trump being elected President of the United States in 2024 would increase the likelihood of the US using force to help Taiwan, while 46.2% stated that Trump being elected would not increase that likelihood.

Views on China's Threat to Taiwan

• Belief in the PRC president's remarks on Taiwan: 64.3% believed that the Chinese president repeatedly emphasizing the statement that "we do not renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures" with respect to Taiwan increases the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan in the future.
• Poaching Taiwan's diplomatic allies is a threat: Over half of the respondents (55.1%) believed the fact that China has been poaching Taiwan's diplomatic allies increases the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan in the future.
• Respondents believed that China's military actions increase the threats to Taiwan's security: 67.7% believed that the actions of China sending military aircraft and warships to cruise near the waters and airspace of Taiwan increase the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan in the future.
• An increase in China's military spending strongly signals a threat: 70.4% stated that if China increases military spending, it increases the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan in the future.
• Perceptions of China's threat to Taiwan. Listed from highest to lowest, the following percentages indicate the proportion of respondents who believe that the following PRC actions make it more likely that China will attack Taiwan in the future increase in military spending (70.4%), China's military aircraft and warships cruising near the waters and airspace of Taiwan (67.7%), remarks from the PRC president about not renouncing the use of force against Taiwan (64.3%), poaching Taiwan's diplomatic allies (55.1%)

Respondents' Perceptions of the Status Quo and the Likelihood of US intervention in the Taiwan Strait

• Strong support for the status quo:the majority of people (91.4%) expressed support for maintaining the status quo.
• Strong support for the status quo: the majority of people (93.0%) expressed support for maintaining the status quo.
• Interpretations of the status quo: 80.6% expressed that Taiwan and China do not belong to the same country, and over half of people considered Taiwan's current country name to be the "Republic of China" (46.7%) or "Republic of China (Taiwan)" (27.3%); in addition, 63.3% considered themselves to be only Taiwanese, 2.3% considered themselves to be only Chinese, and 32.4% considered themselves to be both Taiwanese and Chinese. 59.6% of respondents believe that the United States will use force to help Taiwan if China attacks, while 31.7% believe it will not.